炒股方略（４）陆羽仁

2007/12/7上
美国公布救楼市计划，美股再大幅反弹，道指再大升１７４点，升幅１．３％，升到１３６１９点的水平，又向着１４０００点的高位进发。

美国政府的计划提供三个选择予做了按揭的业主，包括冻结利息，重做新的按揭，以及借取联邦房屋局支持的贷款，估计最多可以有１２０万美国业主受惠。政府的计划出来后，美国市场憧憬能解决次按危机，所以股市急升。

上一日美股急升１９０点后，港股跟得好少，只升２００几点，仲见到有�人见高减货，但美股再急升，应该可以推港股上一个台阶。

再谈投资组合问题，网友Elle写了好长的问题，问如何设立投资组合，她的留言如下：

「Dear Luk Sir,

May I get some help from you? I have been trying to work out what should be my portfoio in terms of asset class and geographical allocation for 2008. Over the last 10 years, I have been really conservative in building my portfoio. You know, by controlling expenses and expending income.. have been doing alright with it... until this year... when there is an inflation buildng up and looks like we just entered into an era of inflationary economy globally. As such, I could not sit at the fence as I used to be.. and here I am.. picking your brain....

My overall target is to have a steady growth of 10% for the next 10-20 years, so that my wealth could double in 7-8years' time (excluding saving from regular income) and double in 15-18 years 'time from now . Risk appetite.. about 5-8% loss is acceptable threotically for a growth of 10%.. technically.. worst comes to worst, I suppose I am contented to earn as much as I could make out of the bank... and of course, capital protection is big in my mind...

My existing portfolio is not fancy at all and here they are:

1) securities: 16%

2) properties: 10% ( I am lucky as rental>mortgage)

3) Bond: 4%

4) cash: 68% ( of which 20% is in USD and 8% in SGD.. I am in deep sh*tI know..)

Briefly counted, I could contribute about 15% saving every year from steady regular income.

If you were me, how would you allocate your resources to achieve the required growth?

Asset class candidates:

1) bond & Euro, Europe securities ( low risk. 3-5%)

2) NZD, RMB,

3) HSI ( include stocks), Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan ETFs. (10-15%)

4) A50, Emerging Europe, Africa, Vietnam, Natural Resource, South America.. high risk ( 20-35%pa)

5)HK, Vietnam, Singapore and Taiwan properties ( highly leverage, but HK has been up so much, upside could be limited and ie high risk.. Again.. you never know.. upside ( but so as the downside) could be more than 40% with the leverage.. but not as liquid as securities and very high maintenance cost (in terms of time, adminstration and money)

Sorry that I have written so much. I have been thinking about this for the last 2-3 weeks but comes to no conclusions. As I am a new comer... your valuable opinions will be definitely a big help...

Thank you for your valuable advice in advance..

Cheers,

Elle」

（简单意译如下：Elle过去投资比较保守，有６８％是现金，１６％是股票，１０％是物业，４％是债券，她想重建投资组合，希望有稳定的１０％年回报，让她在７至８年可以把投资翻倍，她的风险胃纳偏低，只接受到约５至８％的损失，她问可以如何建立投资组合，她问到股票、债券、物业等不同资产类别，亦问到不同地区的市场）

陆羽仁经常讲，建立投资组合，首要问的问题是你可以接受多少风险，然后才问你期望多少回报，定好目标，才决定如何投资，所以Elle的思考方式十分正确。

倒过来说，很多人买股不问风险，亦唔知自己想有几多回报，只想买股票赢大钱，�买法就是完全赌运气，�巧他入市的时机好，都可以赢大钱，正如买六合彩都有人赢大钱一样，问题是你有无�好彩可以长赢而矣。

睇完Elle过住的投资，有两个感觉。第一，她是保守型，很怕风险，但保守不是坏事，她可能已跑赢另一半烂赌又唔识赌的炒股者，因为另一半人本金都保唔到，经常输钱。大陆有个统计，�大的牛市，仍有七成散户输钱，所以对这七成人来说，竟然是一句老话：「不赌是赢钱」，Elle已跑赢这些人。

第二，若从一个积极投资者的角度，Elle组合的好处亦是坏处，此组合过份保守，现金太多，近七成是现金，现金放在银行，收取微末利息，正常利息只和通胀同步，即系话加埋通胀实质回报等如零，如果遇上现在这种负利率的年代，假设有１％负利率，组合每年就以１％实质减值。再加上港元跟美元贬值，如使用外汇的需要较多的人，如经常买外国贵货、旅行、外出求学、外出投资等，资产实质贬值更多。

讲到投资组合，今次先讲资产类别问题。著名的投资人有一个观察，以二、三十年的长线计，股票投资优于存款及债券，记着他们是在美国这种成熟型经济，都是这样，在增长型经济（如大陆），这个情况将更清淅，简单讲在银行存钱长线唔着数，银行主要盈利就是从赚存款者息差而来。

我附加另一个观察，对不善选股投资的人来说，在增长型经济（是大陆而不是香港），买楼也是很不错的投资，因为楼价长线受租金收益支持，租金收益长线和经济增长同步，例如大陆未来１０年能维持GDP年增长１０％，其租金亦应同步增长，换言之楼价长线亦应同步上升，不过现实上楼价有时升过笼，有时升唔够，偏离了价值线（租金收益增长），但长线仍是大体仍是沿价值线向上。

买楼有一个明显的好处是有杠杆，我现在去广州买一问珠江边江景的１０００�单位，假设是１４０万（５年前是７０万），出三成首期４２万，借９８万，租金回报若可以顶得住供楼开支，即系话我投入４２万之后，不用加钱去供，就可以控制一间时值１４０万的楼，等渠升值，又假设楼价以年平均１０％速度上升，第一年升了１４万元，以投资入本金３３万计，回报是３３％而不是１０％，所以在快速增长的经济，以合理价格，买入地段优越未来供应极其有限的物业，买入不理升跌死揸１０年以上，对笨笨地的投资者来说，可能是回报最高风险最低的投资。买楼有另一样好处，是进出较困难，不易在跌市中手手痕痕就把优质货在最平时沽掉，但买股进出容易，较受市场气氛影响，好易在淡市清货。

�样买股又好唔好得过买楼呢？